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Kinney method (Kinney & Wiruth)

The Kinney method determines the size of a risk using three factors: probability, exposure and effect. Multiply them and you get a risk score you can use to set priorities.

Explanation

The Kinney & Wiruth method is a widely used way to put a number on risks in a risk assessment or incident review. Variants exist, sometimes under the name Fine & Kinney. You estimate three factors: the probability that it goes wrong, how often or how long people are exposed and what the effect would be.

Each factor gets a value on a fixed scale. You multiply the values into a risk score (R = W x B x E) and place that score in a risk class, from low to very high. The higher the class, the faster and heavier the measures. The scales and class limits differ per organisation, so write them down.

The advantage is that you can compare risks with each other and get a clear ranking. It remains an estimate though: two assessors do not always reach the same number. Discuss the scores with people who know the work. A risk matrix is the simpler variant with only likelihood and consequence.

Example from practice

You assess working next to a moving forklift: probability moderate, exposure daily, effect serious injury. Multiplied, that gives a score that comes out higher than for a risk that rarely occurs.

© 2026 BrydgeOne. General information, not legal or other professional advice. No rights can be derived from this explanation.

In BrydgeOne

Where you work with Kinney method

Risk assessment & action planAssess risks and set out an action plan. Incidents & reportsLog incidents and turn them into follow-up.
Knowledge base

Keep reading

How to prepare a risk assessment (RI&E): a step-by-step guideThe RI&E, the Dutch risk inventory and evaluation, is the foundation of your occupational health and safety policy. You map out the risks in your organization and what you do about them. This step-by-step guide helps you build an RI&E that is accurate, usable and kept up to date. RI&E example: a worked risk assessment for a small or mid-sized companyAn RI&E example shows in a few minutes what ten pages of explanation cannot: how risks, scores and measures fit together. Below we work out a risk inventory and evaluation (RI&E) for a fictional small company that supplies and installs products. How to make a risk matrix: example with scales, colour zones and worked scoresA risk matrix is a table in which you determine risk as likelihood times effect: you score the likelihood, score the severity of the consequence and read the result in a colour zone. You build one by first defining both scales in concrete terms, then linking a fixed action to each colour and scoring every risk again after the measures. Below you will find the steps, example scales and a worked example.
Glossary

See also

Risk matrixRisk matrixRI&ERisk Inventory and EvaluationResidual riskResidual riskTRATask Risk AnalysisAction planAction plan (risk assessment follow-up)

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